According to a NITI Aayog member, Indian agriculture growth will witness moderate deceleration in the medium and long term amid the lockdown to contain coronavirus. NITI Member Ramesh Chand has observed in a paper, that there is a fear of serious overall price deflation in the non-agriculture sector. However, the agriculture sector is expected to witness temporary episodes of price spikes at the consumer-level & price crashes at the producer-level.
He mentioned in the paper titled, Covid-19 and Food System Risks in India that, “At the macro-level, Covid-19 is expected to affect agriculture & non-agriculture sectors differently. On one hand, the non-agriculture sector is projected to follow a V-shaped or W-shaped recovery. The agriculture growth rate, on the other hand, will follow moderate deceleration in the medium- and long-term without sharp decline or sharp increase in output.”
Ramesh Chand, who is an agricultural economist, said notwithstanding some general predictions about the impacts of Covid-19, the world seems to be entering an unchartered territory of policy making with uncertainties.
He added, “Prolonged coronavirus disease will pose a huge threat to value chains and supply chains because of higher risks of disruption and cost. This will put pressure on increasing self-reliance and even self-sufficiency in food as against reliance on trade with others.
He said that it is heartening that during this pandemic, agricultural activities & food supply have shown remarkable resilience in most countries.